Interesting (and disturbing) economic indicator

Here is an interesting (and disturbing) economic indicator sent to me by Timothy A. Canova, international monetary policy expert and associate dean/professor of international economic law at the Chapman University School of Law. You can find Dean Canova’s bio at http://www.chapman.edu/law/faculty/canova.asp.

Here’s an unusual anecdotal measure I’ve mentioned before about how bad things have become in the housing market:

At least two people have died and dozens have come down ill from West Nile virus In Orange County, California. According to reports in the Los Angeles Times and Orange County Register, public health officials in Orange County believe the return of West Nile virus is the result of mosquitoes breeding in the stagnant waters of swimming pools of abandoned and foreclosed homes. Public health officials in Los Angeles and San Diego are also facing record numbers of human cases of West Nile virus, and are now introducing the Gambusia affinis, a tiny fish that devours mosquito larvae, into the stagnant pools to help eliminate the threat.

For verification, here’s one report: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/unleashed/2008/06/tiny-fish-helps.html

B-school/law school prof provides analysis of '08 stimulus package

As a follow-up to stories on the recently passed economic stimulus package, I thought I would send post some thoughts from Francine Lipman, a professor of both law and economics at the law and business schools at Chapman University. You can find her bio here: http://www.chapman.edu/law/faculty/lipman.asp.

With President Bush's signature the 2008 Economic Stimulus bill became law last week. As a result, taxpayers and their professionals and the IRS are struggling to understand the new legislation. Specifically taxpayers are asking do I qualify for the tax rebate; how much will I receive and when will I receive it. Most notably, low-income taxpayers who often rely on their tax refunds to finance their critical needs are struggling to understand how this works.

Like most tax laws, the new legislation is complicated and lacks transparency. While the rebate is a 2008 tax credit the advance payment of the 2008 tax credit will be based upon 2007 tax filings. However, taxpayers who do not qualify for the advance payment can qualify for additional amounts with their 2008 tax return filing. Unfortunately, this means that millions of individuals who do not otherwise need to file (because their income is so low or because their only source of income is Social Security benefits or Veterans disability income) must file a 2007 tax return to get the advanced payment of the 2008 tax rebate. Low-income taxpayer advocates are concerned that much of the $300 tax rebate for these individuals will end up in the pockets of paid tax preparers who often charge $100-$200 for a tax filing and more for Refund Anticipation Loans (a loan against the future forthcoming rebate).

In addition, to requiring at least $3000 of earned income; certain Social Security benefits or Veterans benefits, eligible individuals must have a Social Security number (SSN). If a taxpayer files married filing jointly both taxpayers must have a Social Security number. This may force certain taxpayers with a spouse that does not have a Social Security number to file married filing separately, which may have adverse tax consequences and cause the loss of other tax credits (e.g., educational tax credits, exclusion from taxation of Social Security tax benefits). IN addition, to qualify for an additional $300 per qualifying child, the child must have a SSN. The legislative history for this requirement is that Congress did not want the rebate to go to undocumented immigrants. However, this requirement is overbroad (there are legally present individuals in the US who do not have SSNs because they are not permitted to work and they are not working) and poorly targeted (there are many individuals who have SSNs who are VISA overstayers or who have a SSN that states that they are not authorized to work who will receive the credit).

The requirement for a SSN under the 2008 tax rebate is similar but less restrictive than the requirement for an SSN under the earned income tax credit (EITC). Under the EITC all taxpayers (including working or nonworking spouses must have a SSN), but if they receive a SSN at a later date they may retroactively file for EITC benefits for up to three prior tax years. This can generate a significant refund. The 2007 EITC can be as great as $4716. Under the EITC only SSNs which permit work qualify a taxpayer for the credit, but this does not seem to be a requirement under the tax rebate.

The requirement for a SSN under the 2008 tax rebate is more restrictive than the requirement for the current child tax credit (which is up to $1000 per qualifying child). To qualify for the child tax credit a qualifying child must have a taxpayer identification number, which can be a SSN (permitting or not permitting work) OR an individual taxpayer identification number (that is, an ITIN).

Given these complexities as well as others the 2008 tax rebate is consistent with our overly complicated tax system.

Struggling homeowners find little hope in federal program

WASHINGTON — In the nearly four months since Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson challenged mortgage lenders to modify distressed home loans voluntarily to ease record numbers of foreclosures, it remains difficult to gauge the program's success.

McClatchy followed several homeowners as they worked with — and sometimes battled — lenders and loan collectors during the mortgage modification process, called Hope Now.

"The big question is how many real loan modifications are happening, and I don't think they know," said Kurt Eggert, a professor at the Chapman University School of Law in Orange, Calif., and a member of a Federal Reserve consumer advisory board. "How can you say you are on top of the problem if you don't know how broadly the 'best solution' is being applied?"

McClatchy also closely followed another borrower, in this case without revealing to the lender that a reporter was watching.

If you would like to read this entire story, please visit: http://paradigmshiftpr.com/media/placements/strugglinghomeowner.htm

Telecommuting Is Not Cure to All Workplace Ills

As fuel prices rise, interest in telecommuting does as well, as I wrote just last week. My blog mentioned several companies that were adding or expanding telecommuting options for their employees in response to high prices at the pump, and also to attract talented folks who may not want to relocate for a job.

Yet some early advocates of telecommuting are beginning to question the practice, eWEEK points out. Among those recalling telecommuting workers to the office are Intel, AT&T, HP and some federal government agencies. And IBM, which lets 40 percent of its employees work outside the office, participated in a telecommuting study by Northeastern University professor Jay Mulki.

If you would like to read this entire article, please visit: http://paradigmshiftpr.com/media/placements/telecommutingnotcure.htm

Fractional Ownership - Latest Luxury Trend of "Want it All"

I thought you might be interested in some thoughts on the “latest luxury trend – fractional ownership” – provided by Aaron Weddell, associate editor of Fractional Life and contributing editor to JustLuxe (www.justluxe.com):

The “want-it-all, want-it-now” generation is moving away from the more traditional methods of obtaining the accepted societal demonstrations of wealth—luxury vehicles, exclusive vacation properties and private aviation, amongst others. They still aspire to such end-user heights, but it is not simply a case of blind purchasing to satisfy consumer desires, but look to balance their spending between experiential reward, financial outlay and, most topically, environmental impact.

This shift has created a consumer breed referred to by trend-watching gurus as ‘transumers’ or ‘fractional lifers.’ This group values not the actual full ownership of goods, but instead focus on the experiences that those goods can provide and the short-term reward, leading to the rapid rise in popularity of fractional ownership.

Fractional ownership and asset sharing gives you an ideal way to get the most out of your investment by purchasing only the shares or time you require from an asset. All other aspects are split - both the benefits and the costs, amongst a limited number of Shareholders or Members. Fractional ownership means you physically own a percentage of the asset until you decide to sell.

To take ownership of a luxury yacht as a simple example- the purchase and ownership costs of running a yacht are terribly high and one would only get enjoy the more pleasurable side of ownership- actually using your yacht- a handful of times per year. So why not split the cost between a number of people and share the downsides of ownership without sacrificing the time you get at sea?

Other fractionals that do not lend themselves traditionally to fractional ownership and instead offer club membership based asset sharing schemes include luxury goods from designer handbags to £150k+ supercars for a fixed annual cost. Supercar club membership for instance negates the issue of lengthy waiting lists, running costs and depreciation but still sees you behind the wheel of the world’s most desirable cars without the financial guesswork.

Although broader acceptance of fractional ownership is only just filtering into the daily life of many consumers already for some fractional lifers fractional ownership is, as the appellation suggests, a way of life.

For more on fractional ownership trends, visit Forecasting 2008: Six Fractional Luxury Trends To Watch

If it's jilted by US Airways, United may be out of suitors

United Airlines could find its last, best hope for a merger partner slipping away if talks with US Airways stall, observers say.

The two carriers have been negotiating for weeks, and at one point appeared close to a deal. But discussions reportedly are on the verge of falling apart, though the top executives of both airlines have a meeting set up today in an attempt to hammer out some differences, according to the Wall Street Journal.

United has been courting possible suitors for several years.

Harlan Platt, a turnaround specialist and finance professor at Northeastern University in Boston, said stronger partnerships could provide a temporary bridge for struggling airlines. But he thinks they would only delay the inevitable consolidation of the U.S. airline industry.

"Longer-term, all of the big airlines will start to merge together," Platt said. "They're going to have to. As the bartender calls out last call, the potential partner you chose not to leave the bar with earlier looks awfully good at this point."

If you'd like to read this entire story, please visit: http://paradigmshiftpr.com/media/placements/jiltedbyusair.htm

Two More High-Profile Law Profs Lured from George Mason to Chapman

George Mason law professor Ronald Rotunda is joining Chapman law school along with his wife, Kyndra, an expert on military personnel and disability law.

Rotunda has written a well-known case book on legal ethics and has helped emerging democracies craft constitutions and legal codes. He will help Chapman create a formal concentration in constitutional law, according to the school’s dean, John Eastman. In a press release he called Rotunda one of the most highly regarded law professors in the country.

The Rotundas are the second and third professors to jump to Chapman law school from George Mason within a year, reports The BLT: The Blog of Legal Times. The first was Nobel economist Vernon Smith.

Ronald Rotunda told The BLT that Chapman is pushing to become a major force in legal education, with funding from an increased endowment. He said the school’s student-teacher ratio rivals that of Yale. “We’re very pleased to be joining a university on its way up,” he said.
He added that George Mason “has some problems” but did not elaborate.

Chapman reports on its website that it has moved up to the third tier in the latest rankings in U.S. News & World Report, a “noteworthy achievement for a law school that has been in existence for barely a dozen years.”

The website announcement, posted March 28 before the Rotundas were hired, says the law school has appointed 11 new faculty hires since last year’s U.S. News balloting in an “unprecedented expansion in faculty and programs.”

Ultimate Whiskey Offering

I wanted to share with you an extremely unique high-end offering that have been put together by Angel’s Share (www.angelsshare.com) out of Novato California.

The Ultimate Whiskey Offering: This extremely exclusive package consists of the world's most expensive cask of single malt scotch whisky, "The Ultimate Cask." The whisky was distilled at Bruichladdich Distillery on Islay--known as the "Scotland's most progressive whisky distillery"-- and is currently maturing entirely in a barrel we obtained from Chateau d'Yquem. This is the only cask of its kind from this highly rated distillery--they won't be making another one--so it truly is the only one of its kind in the world.

Since the whisky takes ten years to mature we've put together a wonderful program of lifestyle experiences, including a private shooting expedition on the Distillery Manager's grounds (with presentation of an engraved Holland & Holland shotgun), the chance to drive a Formula racing car on track, and other wonderful offerings. This opportunity promises to go beyond the typical "castles and kilts" view of Scotland and really experience the people and whisky distilling firsthand and up-close from a famous Master Distiller (James McEwen). The price tag on the cask and experience is $300k.

Forces Plague UAL-US Air Deal

UAL Corp. and US Airways Group Inc., caught between long-standing airline industry concerns and new realities, face difficult choices in deciding whether to pursue a merger or carry on as independent carriers.

Both US Airways and UAL, parent of United Airlines Inc., have been seeking a partner for the better part of two years. When talks heated up between the airlines last month, many thought the companies had finally found a transaction that would allow them to cut capacity and overhead costs in the face of cutthroat competition and rising fuel prices.

Harlan Platt, a finance professor at Northeastern University who follows the airline industry, described the talks between United and US Airways as "like two condemned prisoners sitting down the night before their execution," willing to discuss anything.

"The failure to find a partner simply shows that no easy solutions exist," Platt said. "This is the most dire moment in the entire history of the industry."

If you'd like to read this entire article, please visit: http://paradigmshiftpr.com/media/placements/forcesplagueairdeal.htm